China seems to be the fastest-growing golf market in the world. Despite the fact that data is hard to come by, we have heard reports that as many as 1,000 new courses will open over the next few decades.
And now we learn that the PGA Show is partnering with the China Golf Association to turn two golf shows into official PGA Merchandise Shows. Both the The PGA of America and the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America are supporting the new shows, which will feature golf equipment, apparel, business-to-business products and services, and construction, design and maintenance products.
It seems to be an attempt by The PGA and GCSAA to expand their brand into Asia, and in doing so, create overseas job opportunities for their members. The PGA even rolled out Greg Norman to talk about the huge opportunities in the Far East. With all of the hype, you can’t blame the American associations for jumping on the bandwagon.
But while there has been hype about other countries in the past, it sadly always faded along with lost investment money. Some say this is different — that China is the world’s most populous country, has the fastest-growing economy, and its scale and size are beyond anything we have ever seen. Yet, if its bubble were too burst, all of those new golf courses could become ghost tracks.
Could that happen? Look at Dubai. Everyone said it was on an unimaginable growth spurt. Development is not completely dead in the emirate, but just this week it was announced that Tiger Wood’s golf course development had been suspended.
No country is immune from market forces — even one where the government runs the capitalism. Or perhaps I should say, especially in a country where the government runs the capitalism.
Without getting into a long discussion on capitalism, suffice it to say that China faces serious threats to a free market. Pervasive corruption, an inefficient banking system, severe pollution and the lack of rule of law all point to an economy that will hit the skids at some point. Perhaps the country can modify and improve before the great burst. But, I would not bet my money on its long-term stability.
As for the PGA and the GCSAA, why not tap into a market when things are good? Just don’t bet the farm.